Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

Tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information that confirms our prior beliefs. Counter: deliberately seek disconfirming evidence.

Over-relying on the first piece of information (the 'anchor'). Counter: generate your own estimate before seeing the anchor.

Judging probability by how easily examples come to mind. Counter: ask 'what's the actual base rate?'

Continuing because of past investment, not future expected value. Counter: ask 'If I were starting fresh today, would I do this?'

Drawing lessons only from winners while ignoring those who failed. Counter: study failures with equal rigor.

Low-skill individuals overestimate ability; experts underestimate (because they realize what they don't know). Counter: calibrate against external feedback.

One positive trait colors overall judgment of a person/product. Counter: evaluate attributes separately and weight explicitly.

Weighing recent events more heavily than older ones. Counter: longer time windows in your analysis.

Adopting beliefs because many others do. Counter: independent first principles thinking.

Losses feel ~2× more painful than equivalent gains. Counter: frame decisions symmetrically and pre-commit to thresholds.

Same outcome described as gain vs loss produces different choices. Counter: restate the problem from multiple frames before deciding.

'I knew it all along.' Past outcomes seem more predictable than they were. Counter: keep a pre-mortem journal — write predictions before events.