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Chapter 3 of 8

Continuous Distributions

Many continuous distributions arise from natural generative processes. The Uniform distribution on \([a, b]\) has constant density \(f(x) = 1/(b - a)\) over the interval, with mean \((a + b)/2\) and variance \((b - a)^2/12\). The Exponential distribution with rate \(\lambda\) models the time between events in a Poisson process; its PDF is \(f(t) = \lambda e^{-\lambda t}\) for \(t \ge 0\), with mean \(1/\lambda\) and variance \(1/\lambda^2\). A defining property of the Exponential is its memorylessness: \(P(X > s + t \mid X > s) = P(X > t)\), meaning that the distribution of remaining waiting time is independent of how long one has already waited. The Gamma distribution generalizes the Exponential via a shape parameter \(k > 0\) and rate \(\theta > 0\) (or scale \(\beta = 1/\theta\)), with PDF \(f(x) = x^{k-1} e^{-x/\theta} / (\Gamma(k) \theta^k)\), mean \(k\theta\), and variance \(k\theta^2\). Setting \(k = 1\) recovers the Exponential, and Gamma(\(k, \theta\)) models the sum of \(k\) independent Exponential(\(1/\theta\)) waiting times.

A second cluster of continuous distributions lives naturally on bounded intervals or the positive reals. The Beta distribution on \((0, 1)\) has PDF \(f(p) = p^{\alpha - 1}(1 - p)^{\beta - 1} / B(\alpha, \beta)\), with mean \(\alpha/(\alpha + \beta)\); it is widely used in ML because it serves as the conjugate prior for Bernoulli, Binomial, and Geometric likelihoods, and provides a flexible family for modeling probabilities. The Dirichlet distribution extends Beta to the \(K\)-simplex, with density \(f(\pi) = (1/B(\alpha)) \prod_i \pi_i^{\alpha_i - 1}\) for \(\pi_i \ge 0\) with \(\sum \pi_i = 1\); it is the conjugate prior of the Multinomial and is central to Bayesian topic models. The Log-Normal distribution describes positive random variables whose logarithm is Normal, with mean \(e^{\mu + \sigma^2/2}\), and is appropriate when multiplicative rather than additive variation dominates.

Other continuous families are important in ML for modeling heavy-tailed behavior, sparse signals, or specialized physical processes. The Student's t-distribution has heavier tails than the Normal, with mean 0 (for \(\nu > 1\)) and variance \(\nu/(\nu - 2)\) for \(\nu > 2\), converging to Normal as \(\nu \to \infty\). The Cauchy (or Lorentz) distribution is the t with \(\nu = 1\); it has undefined mean and variance and is a classic heavy-tailed example. The Laplace (double-exponential) distribution \(f(x \mid \mu, b) = (1/(2b)) e^{-|x - \mu|/b}\) has heavier tails than Normal and is often used as a sparsity-inducing prior on regression coefficients. Heavy-tailed distributions in general decay more slowly than exponential — for instance as power laws \(P(X > x) \propto x^{-\alpha}\), exemplified by the Pareto distribution \(f(x) = \alpha x_m^{\alpha} / x^{\alpha + 1}\) for \(x \ge x_m\), which underlies the "80/20 rule" in wealth and city-size modeling, and the discrete Zipf distribution where the \(k\)-th most frequent item has probability proportional to \(1/k^s\). The chi-squared distribution arises as the sum of squared standard normals and is itself a Gamma(\(k/2, 2\)); in ratio form it gives the F-distribution used in ANOVA. Survival and hazard functions provide an alternative language for non-negative distributions: the survival function \(S(t) = P(T > t) = 1 - F(t)\), and the hazard \(h(t) = f(t)/S(t)\) is the instantaneous failure rate conditional on survival. For the Weibull distribution with shape \(k\), the hazard decreases for \(k < 1\) (infant mortality), is constant for \(k = 1\) (Exponential), and increases for \(k > 1\) (wear-out); the Rayleigh distribution, a Weibull with shape 2, models magnitudes of 2D Gaussian vectors, while the Maxwell–Boltzmann distribution, a chi distribution with 3 degrees of freedom, describes molecular speeds.

All chapters
  1. 1Foundations of Probability Distributions
  2. 2Discrete Distributions for ML
  3. 3Continuous Distributions
  4. 4The Normal Family and Asymptotics
  5. 5Bayesian Inference and Conjugate Priors
  6. 6Mixtures, Latent Variables, and Variational Bounds
  7. 7Classification Models from a Distributional View
  8. 8Sampling, MCMC, and Modern Generative Models

Drill it

Reading is not remembering. These come from the Probability Distributions For Ml deck:

Q

What is a probability distribution?

A function (or rule) that assigns to every outcome in a sample space a non-negative probability, with the total probability over all outcomes summing (or integr...

Q

What is a discrete probability distribution?

A distribution defined on a countable set of outcomes, specified by a probability mass function (PMF) p(x) with p(x) ≥ 0 and Σ p(x) = 1.

Q

What is a probability mass function (PMF)?

A function p(x) that gives the probability of a discrete random variable taking the value x; satisfies p(x) ≥ 0 for all x and Σ_x p(x) = 1.

Q

What is a probability density function (PDF)?

A function f(x) for a continuous random variable such that P(a ≤ X ≤ b) = ∫_a^b f(x) dx, with f(x) ≥ 0 and ∫_{-∞}^{∞} f(x) dx = 1.