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Chapter 5 of 7

Estimation, Metrics, and Progress

Estimating in Scrum is grounded in the principle of relative sizing, where items are compared to one another rather than estimated in absolute units of time. The most common unit of measure is the Story Point, which expresses an estimate of the overall effort required to fully implement a Product Backlog item. Because Developers will do the work, they are the ones who decide how many story points to assign. Teams often use the Fibonacci sequence, with values such as 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, and so on, because the widening gaps reflect growing uncertainty for larger items and force meaningful conversation when estimates diverge. Planning Poker is a popular consensus-based technique that uses these numbered cards, with team members discussing and re-voting until the group converges on a shared estimate.

When uncertainty is high, teams use a spike, a time-boxed investigation or experiment designed to reduce uncertainty about a technical or functional question before committing to a larger estimate. To track progress, Scrum teams use several complementary visualizations. Velocity is an empirical measure of how much Product Backlog work a team turns into a done Increment during a Sprint, and while it measures the amount of work, it is not a direct measure of productivity or value. A burndown chart shows the work remaining over time and is often used during a Sprint for the Sprint Backlog, while a burnup chart shows work completed over time and frequently includes a target line for scope. At a higher level, a Release Burndown tracks remaining work toward a release, and a Cumulative Flow Diagram (CFD) shows cumulative work across statuses over time, making bottlenecks visible.

All chapters
  1. 1Foundations of Scrum
  2. 2The Scrum Team and Accountabilities
  3. 3The Sprint and Its Events
  4. 4Scrum Artifacts and Commitments
  5. 5Estimation, Metrics, and Progress
  6. 6The Scrum Master in Depth
  7. 7Scaling, Stakeholders, and Supporting Concepts

Drill it

Reading is not remembering. These come from the Scrum Master Psm I Prep deck:

Q

What is the primary purpose of the Scrum framework?

To deliver value iteratively and incrementally by solving complex problems while enabling teams to deliver productively and creatively.

Q

Who originally created Scrum and when?

Ken Schwaber and Jeff Sutherland, first presented at OOPSLA in 1995.

Q

What does the word "Scrum" originate from?

A rugby scrum, used by Hirotaka Takeuchi and Ikujiro Nonaka in their 1986 Harvard Business Review paper.

Q

What is empirical process control?

Decision-making based on observation, experimentation, and learning from experience rather than upfront defined processes.