Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making Practice Exam

Question 1 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

How to counter hindsight bias?

Write down predictions and reasoning before outcomes; review later honestly. Negative information is processed more deeply and remembered longer than positive. Recording predictions and reasoning at decision time; reviewing later prevents hindsight bias and improves calibration. Judging probability by similarity to a stereotype, ignoring base rates.

Question 2 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

Recency bias?

Belief that one sees the world objectively, and disagreement comes from others' ignorance or bias. 'I knew it all along.' Past outcomes seem more predictable than they were. Counter: keep a pre-mortem journal — write predictions before events. Weighing recent events more heavily than older ones. Counter: longer time windows in your analysis. Negative information is processed more deeply and remembered longer than positive.

Question 3 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

Availability heuristic?

Bay of Pigs invasion, Vietnam escalation, Challenger disaster — all suffered from groupthink dynamics. Barry Schwartz's book — more options can reduce wellbeing through regret, decision fatigue, and inflated expectations. Failing to notice clearly visible things when focused elsewhere — the invisible gorilla experiment. Judging probability by how easily examples come to mind. Counter: ask 'what's the actual base rate?'

Question 4 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is texas sharpshooter fallacy?

After making a choice, you bias evaluation to support it — reduces the discomfort of trade-off. Confusing sequence for causation — B happened after A, so A caused B. Drawing the target after firing — selecting data to fit a narrative. First offer sets the anchor for the deal. Counter: come with your own well-justified anchor — don't let the other side anchor first.

Question 5 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is the affect heuristic?

Letting current emotions shape judgments about risks and benefits. Adopting beliefs or behaviors because many others have — social proof gone wild. Measurement error in predictors biases regression toward zero — important in observational studies. Correcting misinformation can strengthen belief in it for some people, in some contexts. (Recent research suggests this is rarer than once thought.)

Question 6 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is the Golem effect?

'I knew it all along.' Past outcomes seem more predictable than they were. Counter: keep a pre-mortem journal — write predictions before events. Low expectations from authority figures lead to lower performance — negative Pygmalion. 1964 NYC murder that motivated bystander effect research (later, original details were partly mythologized). Survey respondents skew answers toward what they think is socially acceptable.

Question 7 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is primacy effect?

Sequence anchors perception — showing a $5,000 watch first makes $500 watches seem reasonable. First information received disproportionately shapes overall impression. Believing past random events affect future probability — five reds in a row don't make black "due." Tendency to remember pleasant information more accurately than unpleasant.

Question 8 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is the Forer (Barnum) effect?

Accepting vague, general personality descriptions as uniquely accurate — basis of horoscopes. Assuming future preferences will be like current ones; planning meals while hungry. Judging a decision by its outcome rather than its quality at the time. Counter: separate process from outcome in retrospectives. Judging probability by how easily examples come to mind. Counter: ask 'what's the actual base rate?'

Question 9 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is the choice-supportive bias?

Justin Kruger and David Dunning, Cornell, 1999 — based on tests in logic, grammar, humor. Failing to detect changes in a visual scene, especially during interruptions or transitions. Seeing patterns in random data — assuming clumping indicates a cause. Tending to remember chosen options as better and rejected options as worse than they were at the time.

Question 10 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is a checklist as a debiasing tool?

Underestimating how much one's emotional state will differ from current state — hot-cold empathy gap. Forces consideration of items you might forget; Atul Gawande popularized this in medicine. Overestimating how much others notice your appearance, mistakes, or behavior. Slow, deliberate, effortful, analytical — engages when System 1 hesitates or when prompted.

Question 11 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

Classic survivorship bias example?

Believing we're less likely to experience negative events than others. Counter: cite base rates explicitly. Adding a third worse option changes preference between original two — used heavily in pricing. Abraham Wald's WWII airplane analysis — armor where returning planes weren't hit, since hits there meant non-return. Continuing to read a boring book because you're halfway through — past time is irrelevant to remaining value.

Question 12 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

Bandwagon effect?

Underestimating time/cost of future tasks despite past experience to the contrary. Counter: use reference-class forecasting — compare with similar past projects. Adopting beliefs because many others do. Counter: independent first principles thinking. Mischel's classic study — kids who delayed gratification correlated with later outcomes (effect somewhat overstated). Opposite of halo — one negative trait coloring all other judgments.

Question 13 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is conformity bias?

Sample doesn't represent population because of how it was chosen — distorts inferences. Adjusting beliefs or behavior to match group norms — Asch line experiments demonstrated. People disproportionately choose the default option — organ donation rates differ enormously by opt-in vs. opt-out. The same information can lead to different decisions depending on how it's presented.

Question 14 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

Milgram experiment outcomes?

Judging probability by how easily examples come to mind — vivid events feel more common than they are. Continuing to read a boring book because you're halfway through — past time is irrelevant to remaining value. ~65% of subjects administered the maximum apparent shock when an authority figure instructed them. Find similar past cases, look at their actual outcomes, anchor estimate on that distribution.

Question 15 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is the cum hoc fallacy?

Forces consideration of items you might forget; Atul Gawande popularized this in medicine. Simons & Chabris — ~50% of subjects watching basketball passes missed a person in a gorilla suit walking through. Confusing correlation with causation when events occur together. Print-only at $125 made print-and-digital at $125 look like a steal — boosted that choice from 16% to 84%.

Question 16 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is the contrast principle in pricing?

Subjects rated "Linda is a feminist bank teller" more probable than "Linda is a bank teller" — conjunction fallacy. Updating beliefs based on evidence rather than wanting them to be true. Overrelying on automated systems even when they're wrong. Sequence anchors perception — showing a $5,000 watch first makes $500 watches seem reasonable.

Question 17 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is regression dilution?

Attributing others' behavior to character while attributing your own to circumstance. Aversion to ideas, tools, or methods from outside one's group or company. Articulating the strongest possible version of an opposing view before responding to it. Measurement error in predictors biases regression toward zero — important in observational studies.

Question 18 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is the garden of forking paths?

Visible effort makes outcomes feel more valuable, even when no functional benefit exists. Many small analytical choices, each defensible, that collectively raise false-positive rates. Stronger version: the more a quantitative indicator is used for decision-making, the more subject it is to corruption. Persuasion attempt that produces the opposite of the intended belief.

Question 19 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

Gilovich's spotlight experiment?

Believing past random events affect future ones (e.g., 'red is due'). Counter: each event is independent; trust the math. Avoiding negative information — checking investment portfolios less when markets fall. People align future behavior with prior commitments, even costly ones. Subjects wearing embarrassing T-shirts thought ~46% noticed; actual was ~23%.

Question 20 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is the "consider the opposite" debiasing?

Make a large request expecting refusal, then a smaller request seems reasonable. Knetsch's experiment: people demanded ~2× the price to sell a mug they'd just been given. Deliberately constructing the strongest case against your current view — reduces confirmation bias and overconfidence. Biases are universal — knowing about them doesn't eliminate them. Systematic processes work better than willpower.

Question 21 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

Janis's classic groupthink examples?

Bay of Pigs invasion, Vietnam escalation, Challenger disaster — all suffered from groupthink dynamics. The first number proposed strongly influences the final agreement. "Nothing in life is as important as you think it is, while you are thinking about it" — Kahneman. Constructing stories to explain past events that overstate causal coherence.

Question 22 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is selection effect in surveys?

Believing we're less likely to experience negative events than others. Counter: cite base rates explicitly. Self-selected respondents differ systematically from non-respondents — skews findings. Sample doesn't represent population because of how it was chosen — distorts inferences. Bay of Pigs invasion, Vietnam escalation, Challenger disaster — all suffered from groupthink dynamics.

Question 23 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is present bias?

Restricting choice triggers desire to restore the lost option — counter-pressure to perceived control loss. Sample doesn't represent population because of how it was chosen — distorts inferences. Persuasive messages that strongly conflict with beliefs can strengthen the opposing belief. Giving disproportionate weight to the immediate future over the longer term.

Question 24 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is the Dunning-Kruger effect?

Low-skill people overestimate ability; high-skill people often underestimate theirs. Simons & Chabris — ~50% of subjects watching basketball passes missed a person in a gorilla suit walking through. Weber's law — smallest perceivable difference between two stimuli, proportional to baseline. Knowing one is observed changes behavior — complicates field research.

Question 25 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is belief perseverance?

Maintaining a belief even after the evidence supporting it has been discredited. Preferring the current state for its own sake. Counter: ask 'if today's state didn't exist, would we create it?' Estimates cluster on multiples of 5 or 10 even when more precise values are warranted. Counter: force odd intermediate guesses. The tendency to search for, interpret, and recall information that confirms one's existing beliefs.

Question 26 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is the certainty effect?

Outcomes seen as certain are overweighted relative to merely probable ones. Write down predictions and reasoning before outcomes; review later honestly. 1964 NYC murder that motivated bystander effect research (later, original details were partly mythologized). Too many options decrease likelihood of choosing and satisfaction with any choice made.

Question 27 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

Confabulation?

Sequence anchors perception — showing a $5,000 watch first makes $500 watches seem reasonable. Judgments of past experiences are dominated by peak emotion and how they ended. Selective attention to one stream (your name in another conversation) while ignoring others. Generating a plausible explanation for behavior whose real cause is unknown to us. Counter: get curious about your own reasoning.

Question 28 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

Why does the planning fallacy persist?

You explain your behavior by situation; you explain others' behavior by personality. People focus on the specific plan rather than reference-class data from similar past projects. Once an algorithm makes a visible error, people avoid it even if it's still better than human alternatives. Mistaking regression to the mean for a real causal effect (e.g., punishment "working" because pilots regressed anyway).

Question 29 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

Bystander effect?

Slightly extending discomfort with a milder ending led to better-rated experience — peak-end at work. Preferring smaller immediate rewards over larger delayed ones, with steep early decay. People less likely to help in groups (assume someone else will). Counter: assign explicit responsibility. Print-only at $125 made print-and-digital at $125 look like a steal — boosted that choice from 16% to 84%.

Question 30 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is the cocktail party effect?

Adjusting beliefs or behavior to match group norms — Asch line experiments demonstrated. Once you know something, hard to imagine not knowing it — leads to poor explanations for novices. General tendency to see patterns, connections, or meaning in random data. Selective attention to one stream (your name in another conversation) while ignoring others.

Question 31 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

Pareidolia?

Recording predictions and reasoning at decision time; reviewing later prevents hindsight bias and improves calibration. Seeing patterns where none exist (faces in clouds, signals in noise). Counter: hold out test data; require statistical significance. First offer sets the anchor for the deal. Counter: come with your own well-justified anchor — don't let the other side anchor first. One positive trait (attractiveness, friendliness) spilling into unrelated judgments (intelligence, competence).

Question 32 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is the just-met-them effect?

Believing we're less likely to experience negative events than others. Counter: cite base rates explicitly. People prefer known risks to unknown ones, even at worse expected value. Initial impressions of new people stick longer than they should — primacy in person perception. Overweighting recent events when forming judgments or predictions.

Question 33 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is "thin slicing"?

Drawing accurate judgments from brief exposures — sometimes valid, sometimes biased pattern-matching. Simons & Chabris — ~50% of subjects watching basketball passes missed a person in a gorilla suit walking through. Confidence in predictions based on coherent stories, even when accuracy is low. Overweighting recent events when forming judgments or predictions.

Question 34 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

Selection bias?

You believe each ticket is unlikely to win, but believe one will — exposes limits of probabilistic belief. Preference for the current state of affairs; change feels riskier than staying put. Seeing patterns in random data — assuming clumping indicates a cause. Sample isn't representative of the population. Counter: trace how subjects entered your data; randomize where possible.

Question 35 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

Kahneman's colonoscopy study?

Slightly extending discomfort with a milder ending led to better-rated experience — peak-end at work. "Free" disproportionately increases attractiveness, even when the calculation is rational. Separating the merits of an argument from who's making it or how it makes you feel. Sequence anchors perception — showing a $5,000 watch first makes $500 watches seem reasonable.

Question 36 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

Confirmation bias?

Tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information that confirms our prior beliefs. Counter: deliberately seek disconfirming evidence. Making decisions based solely on quantifiable factors and ignoring the immeasurable. Many high-profile findings fail to replicate — calls for stricter pre-registration and methodology. Mistaking regression to the mean for a real causal effect (e.g., punishment "working" because pilots regressed anyway).

Question 37 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is loss aversion in price changes?

You believe each ticket is unlikely to win, but believe one will — exposes limits of probabilistic belief. Outcomes seen as certain are overweighted relative to merely probable ones. Judging probability by how easily examples come to mind. Counter: ask 'what's the actual base rate?' A $5 price increase feels worse than a $5 discount feels good — frame matters.

Question 38 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

Mug experiment for endowment effect?

Knetsch's experiment: people demanded ~2× the price to sell a mug they'd just been given. Giving disproportionate weight to the immediate future over the longer term. Initial impressions of new people stick longer than they should — primacy in person perception. Overestimating how much others notice your appearance, mistakes, or behavior.

Question 39 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is "Goodhart's law" and decisions?

'I knew it all along.' Past outcomes seem more predictable than they were. Counter: keep a pre-mortem journal — write predictions before events. Tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information that confirms our prior beliefs. Counter: deliberately seek disconfirming evidence. Acknowledging the limits of your knowledge; staying open to being wrong. "When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure" — metric gaming distorts decisions.

Question 40 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is the just-world fallacy?

Make a large request expecting refusal, then a smaller request seems reasonable. Low-skill individuals overestimate ability; experts underestimate (because they realize what they don't know). Counter: calibrate against external feedback. Believing the world is fundamentally fair — bad things happen to bad people, so victims must deserve it. Loss aversion is a core component of prospect theory — describes how people value gains vs. losses.

Question 41 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is curse of knowledge?

Once you know something, hard to imagine not knowing it — leads to poor explanations for novices. Just-below pricing creates perception of meaningfully lower cost via left-digit effect. Judging probability by similarity to a stereotype, ignoring base rates. Constructing stories to explain past events that overstate causal coherence.

Question 42 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is the mere-exposure effect?

Judging probability by how easily examples come to mind — vivid events feel more common than they are. Barry Schwartz's book — more options can reduce wellbeing through regret, decision fatigue, and inflated expectations. Repeated exposure to a stimulus increases preference for it. Active choice not to learn information that might cause discomfort, even when free and useful.

Question 43 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is anchoring in negotiation?

People align future behavior with prior commitments, even costly ones. Ignoring base rate of disease can dramatically misjudge meaning of positive test (Bayes failures). First information received disproportionately shapes overall impression. The first number proposed strongly influences the final agreement.

Question 44 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is commitment-consistency bias?

People align future behavior with prior commitments, even costly ones. Practicing probability estimates with feedback — improves over time; used in forecasting and intelligence work. Default settings, framing, social proof, and salience all shape behavior without removing options — Thaler & Sunstein. Same outcome described as gain vs loss produces different choices. Counter: restate the problem from multiple frames before deciding.

Question 45 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is the cognitive ease bias?

Doing one good deed makes people more likely to subsequently do something selfish or unethical. Things easier to think about feel more true — repetition, fluency, familiarity all boost perceived truth. Recalling memories matching current emotional state — sad mood retrieves sad memories. The first number proposed strongly influences the final agreement.

Question 46 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is the nocebo effect?

Weighing recent events more heavily than older ones. Counter: longer time windows in your analysis. Negative expectations produce harmful effects from neutral exposures. Knetsch's experiment: people demanded ~2× the price to sell a mug they'd just been given. Recalling memories matching current emotional state — sad mood retrieves sad memories.

Question 47 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is base rate neglect in medicine?

Acknowledging the limits of your knowledge; staying open to being wrong. Ignoring base rate of disease can dramatically misjudge meaning of positive test (Bayes failures). Slow down deliberately for high-stakes decisions; let System 2 review System 1's conclusions. Continuing because of past investment, not future expected value. Counter: ask 'If I were starting fresh today, would I do this?'

Question 48 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is the Ben Franklin effect?

Over-relying on the first piece of information (the 'anchor'). Counter: generate your own estimate before seeing the anchor. A person who has done you a favor will do another more readily than someone you've done a favor for. Underestimating how common your good qualities or abilities are. Reasoning from project-specific details — usually overoptimistic without an outside-view check.

Question 49 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

Negativity bias?

Failing to notice clearly visible things when focused elsewhere — the invisible gorilla experiment. Cheaper energy cost; usually accurate enough; System 2 is the lazy back-up checker. Bad events impact us more than equivalent good ones. Counter: deliberately log small wins to calibrate. Loss aversion is a core component of prospect theory — describes how people value gains vs. losses.

Question 50 Cognitive Biases Quick Reference For Decision Making

What is the actor-observer asymmetry?

Barry Schwartz's book — more options can reduce wellbeing through regret, decision fatigue, and inflated expectations. Doing one good deed makes people more likely to subsequently do something selfish or unethical. You explain your behavior by situation; you explain others' behavior by personality. Believing you understand how something works in more detail than you actually do — until asked to explain.