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Exam details
Tendency to search for, interpret, and remember information that confirms our prior beliefs. Counter: deliberately seek disconfirming evidence.
Over-relying on the first piece of information (the 'anchor'). Counter: generate your own estimate before seeing the anchor.
Judging probability by how easily examples come to mind. Counter: ask 'what's the actual base rate?'
Continuing because of past investment, not future expected value. Counter: ask 'If I were starting fresh today, would I do this?'
Drawing lessons only from winners while ignoring those who failed. Counter: study failures with equal rigor.